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TRADER' S CALL # 133 9:30AM 31st May 2006 2006-05-31
A CRASH? Okay that's a name - but the JSE is vulnerable to more heavy selling next  (view print version)

A CRASH?  Okay that's a name - but the JSE  is vulnerable to more heavy selling next:
Asian, US and currency intensity and end of month and market mood with all the technical and behavioural characteristics of the top of the JSE resources, industrials and financials minor reaction wave since low of 22nd May, with an impulse wave down starting next, indicated by futures and corroborating with action below 20010 on J203 ( JSE Overall Index),  suggest to me that short and long term strategies can  reduce / profit protect/ go defensive/ hedge / or get short on Satrix or futures depending on individual strategy, risk parameters and goals. A risk that this view is premature or wrong relates to whether the impact of a weaker Rand will support resilience. Yet in JSE 203 momentum and behavioural terms, I am calling the next JSE leg down now to 18350 or 17310 or 16500 by October, best guess 16500 area. That's maybe a 15-20% vulnerability, that may play out enough to hurt individual shares and some unit trusts.

Best regards
Victor Hugo
www.hugocapital.com



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