In The Turning Point Newsletters we give
information about forthcoming trends. We refer to the major JSE
sectors such as the JSE Overall Index, JSE Industrial Index, JSE
Financial Index and the JSE Gold Index.
By understanding the likely trends for each of
these sectors, even if your particular shares aren't mentioned in
the newsletter, you'll be in a position to judge whether the
shares you own or want to invest in are vulnerable to a selloff or
whether they are oversold. (An oversold share is one that looks
good value for buyers.)
You can then decide whether the risk/reward
market context favours a buying opportunity is coming up.
The same comments apply to international
indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the USA), the
FTSE 100 (the UK), the Nikkei Dow (Tokyo) and the Dax (Germany).
International trends, particularly the DJIA, still have a strong
influence on us.
We often also comment on the likely trends of
currencies and the impact that these will have on JSE shares which
are sensitive to changes in the value of the Rand. Of course the
value of the Rand changes according to the relative strength or
weakness of other currencies and conversely the relative strength
or weakness of the Rand itself.
Where we see sector opportunities, we comment
on them, referring to individual shares which we think will soon
do well ("special opportunities"). In each case we give
recommended buying levels, target levels and major support levels.
Gilts and futures are occasionally referred to as well.
Look out for key support and resistance levels
mentioned in the body of the newsletter where we analyze trends.
These levels, if penetrated, are often very accurate signals of
trend confirmation or trend changes. The idea is if an index moves
up through an important ("key") level of resistance, it
will probably continue up to the next resistance and will
"test" it. In a strong bull market, resistances are
continually broken on the upside.
Each break of a resistance is another interim
signal that there will be some further upside potential. As a ball
thrown in the air eventually comes down again however, prices or
indices eventually move down to test support levels.
Similarly, if a support level is broken -- this
is a signal that there could be further downside. It is our job to
tell you how much downside, or in the case of a rising market, how
much upside we think there will be.
Don't hang your investment hat on cycle factors
alone. Yes, cycles are part of the mosaic of decision making
inputs, but like the human psyche --- cycles can invert, come in
early or late, or not be as big (or small) as hoped for. We
comment on cycles from time to time.